Bayesian: probability of fire given current air analysis
- Teaching clinical trialists to embrace Bayes when they already do in spirit but not operationally. Unlearning things is much more difficult than learning things.
- How to work with sponsors, regulators, and NIH principal investigators to specify the (usually skeptical) prior up front, and to specify the amount of applicability assumed for previous data.
- What is a Bayesian version of the multiple degree of freedom "chunk test"? Partitioning sums of squares or the log likelihood into components, e.g., combined test of interaction and combined test of nonlinearities, is very easy and natural in the frequentist setting.
- How do we specify priors for complex entities such as the degree of monotonicity of the effect of a continuous predictor in a regression model? The Bayesian approach to this will ultimately be more satisfying, but operationalizing this is not easy.