Viewpoints on Heterogeneity of Treatment Effect and Precision Medicine

This article provides my reflections after the PCORI/PACE Evidence and the Individual Patient meeting on 2018-05-31. The discussion includes a high-level view of heterogeneity of treatment effect in optimizing treatment for individual patients.

Clinicians' Misunderstanding of Probabilities Makes Them Like Backwards Probabilities Such As Sensitivity, Specificity, and Type I Error

Imagine watching a baseball game, seeing the batter get a hit, and hearing the announcer say “The chance that the batter is left handed is now 0.2!” No one would care. Baseball fans are interested in the chance that a batter will get a hit conditional on his being right handed (handedness being already known to the fan), the handedness of the pitcher, etc. Unless one is an archaeologist or medical examiner, the interest is in forward probabilities conditional on current and past states.