Statistical Thinking

This blog is devoted to statistical thinking and its impact on science and everyday life. Emphasis is given to maximizing the use of information, avoiding statistical pitfalls, describing problems caused by the frequentist approach to statistical inference, describing advantages of Bayesian and likelihood methods, and discussing intended and unintended differences between statistics and data science. I’ll also cover regression modeling strategies, clinical trials, drug evaluation, medical diagnosis, and decision making.

Frank Harrell

Frank Harrell

Professor of Biostatistics

Vanderbilt University

Biography

Frank Harrell is a Professor of Biostatistics in the School of Medicine at Vanderbilt University. His research interests include statistical modeling, predictive models and model validation, Bayesian statistics, Bayesian clinical trial design, clinical trial design, analysis, and reporting, statistical computing, statistical graphics, reproducible research, drug development, medical decision making and diagnostic research, health services research, cardiology, COVID-19 therapeutic clinical trial design, and teaching.

Interests

  • Statistical modeling
  • Bayesian statistics and study design
  • Predictive modeling and model validation
  • Biomedical research
  • Medical decision making
  • Medical diagnostic research
  • Statistical computing, graphics, and reproducible research methods
  • Cardiology
  • Clinical trial design, analysis, and reporting
  • COVID-19 therapeutic clinical trials
  • Health services research
  • Drug development

Education

  • PhD in Biostatistics, 1979

    University of North Carolina

  • BS in Mathematics, 1973

    University of Alabama in Birmingham

Skills

Biostatistics

R

Biomedical Research

Teaching

This is a free web course in introductory and intermediate biostatistics. Details are on the course web page.

Regression Modeling Strategies

I teach the BIOS7330 Regression Modeling Strategies course in the Biostatistics Graduate Program at Vanderbilt University in the spring semester. The course web page is here. I teach a 4-day virtual version of this course each May. Registration information for the short course may be found here.

Master of Science in Clinical Investigation Biostatistics II

I co-teach this course at Vanderbilt each February for postdoctoral medical and surgical fellows and junior faculty in the MSCI program.

Recent Posts

Commentary on Improving Precision and Power in Randomized Trials for COVID-19 Treatments Using Covariate Adjustment, for Binary, Ordinal, and Time-to-Event Outcomes

This is a commentary on the paper by Benkeser, Díaz, Luedtke, Segal, Scharfstein, and Rosenblum
Last updated on 2021-10-04 21 min read

Incorrect Covariate Adjustment May Be More Correct than Adjusted Marginal Estimates

This article provides a demonstration that the perceived non-robustness of nonlinear models for covariate adjustment in randomized trials may be less of an issue than the non-transportability of marginal so-called robust estimators.
Last updated on 2021-06-29 17 min read

Avoiding One-Number Summaries of Treatment Effects for RCTs with Binary Outcomes

This article presents an argument that for RCTs with a binary outcome the primary result should be a distribution and not any single number summary. The GUSTO-I study is used to exemplify risk difference distributions.
Last updated on 2021-06-28 10 min read

If You Like the Wilcoxon Test You Must Like the Proportional Odds Model

Since the Wilcoxon test is a special case of the proportional odds (PO) model, if one likes the Wilcoxon test, one must like the PO model. This is made more convincing by showing examples of how one may accurately compute the Wilcoxon statistic from the PO model’s odds ratio.
Last updated on 2021-04-13 7 min read

Implementation of the PATH Statement

The recent PATH (Predictive Approaches to Treatment effect Heterogeneity) Statement outlines principles, criteria, and key considerations for applying predictive approaches to clinical trials to provide patient-centered evidence in support of decision making. Here challenges in implementing the PATH Statement are addressed with the GUSTO-I trial as a case study.
Last updated on 2020-11-28 18 min read
See all posts

Projects

Recent & Upcoming Talks

Modernizing Clinical Trial Design and Analysis to Improve Efficiency & Flexibility

This presentation covers several ways to make clinical trials more efficient and to reduce the chance of ending with an equivocal …
2021-11-04 00:00
Slides Video

Musings on Statistical Models vs. Machine Learning in Health Research

Video
Health researchers and practicing clinicians are with increasing frequency hearing about machine learning (ML) and artificial …
2021-05-31 00:00
Slides Video

Sequential Bayesian Designs for Rapid Learning in COVID-19 Clinical Trials

Continuous learning from data and computation of probabilities that are directly applicable to decision making in the face of …
2020-11-25 00:00
Code Slides Video

Controlling α vs. Probability of a Decision Error

This presentation clarifies what type I assertion probability α protects against, by making a clear distinction between how often we …
2020-11-12 00:00
Slides

Controversies in Predictive Modeling, Machine Learning, and Validation

This talk covers a variety of controversial and/or current issues related to statistical modeling and prediction research. Some of the …
2020-09-25 00:00
Code Slides Video
See all talks

Topics

accuracy-score backward-probability bayes big-data bioinformatics biomarker bootstrap change-scores classification collaboration conditioning covid-19 data-reduction data-science decision-making design diagnosis dichotomization drug-evaluation EHR endpoints evidence forward-probability generalizability graphics hypothesis-testing inductive-reasoning inference judgment likelihood logic machine-learning measurement medical-literature medicine metrics multiplicity observational ordinal p-value personalized-medicine posterior precision prediction principles prior probability r RCT regression reporting reproducible responder-analysis sample-size sensitivity sequential specificity subgroup survival-analysis teaching validation variability 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Contact

Statistical Thinking News

Statistical Thinking News is a companion site for news and opinions on data analysis and statistical modeling, prediction, statistical computing, research design and interpretation, clinical trials, and research integrity. It is updated at least weekly.

Datamethods

datamethods.org is a discussion site where data methodologists meet each other and subject matter experts including clinical trialists and clinical researchers. Its development is documented here. Datamethods is provided by the Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine.

I have written some short articles on the site, listed below.